Macroeconomic Advice For You!

So one of the surprises at this conference was a presentation on the global near-term economic outlook by Theo Schwabacher of Morgan Stanley, famed for telling everybody to BUY GOLD! a couple years back at this same conference.

She’s urging caution on gold now, not merely because of the hype but also because of the potential for government restictions on ownership/confiscation (she used more cautious euphemisms, but the meaning was clear).

(BTW this is a conference for consumer-debt organizations, not a bunch of goldbugs or even permabear types. Pretty conservative group, actually — but with a keen interest in the macro outlook as it will affect consumers and their credit and ability to pay their debts.)

Most of her talk and accompanying graphs/charts would have been old hat to ZeroHedge readers (thus my surprise, given the audience). The two things I found most of interest were her firm assertion that China will have a soft landing, and her repeated emphasis on equities as a very opportune long-term strategy, especially consideribg the p/e ratios and continued strong profitability of a lot of publicly-traded entities — and dividend performance compared to Treasuries, of course.

Her reeated insistence that today’s fundamentals are not nearly as bad as 2008 I discounted, of course — as a prepper, I’m gonna prep for the possible bad scenario before considering what’s maybe more likely.

Anywho, an interesting talk.

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2 Responses to Macroeconomic Advice For You!

  1. USCitizen says:

    When the sparkle of gold fades, there’s always lead and brass.

  2. RN says:

    Gold will be a good buy, IMHO, until it’s over $4000/oz – likely for another half-dozen years , when the DOW P/E is in the single digits. Based on historical patterns and voting schedules and expected financial blow-up dates, I expect that will be around 2017. THEN sell the gold and gold stocks, and buy solid consumer, manufacturing, and service stocks with decent dividends.

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